A summary of key events and market trends during the month of September

Global Markets Updates

 

• The Fed cut rates by 25bps in September, its first cut since December 2024 and the move came as unemployment ticked up to 4.3% and job growth slowed. Fed officials flagged rising downside risks to employment, even as tariffs keep inflation sticky. The signal: policy is tilting toward job support, but tariff-driven inflation and a potential negative growth impact, down the road, complicates the path forward.

 

• Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8% annualized, keeping the U.S. growth story alive. But effective tariff rates on imports have climbed, and higher import costs are set to weigh on activity in coming months. Markets are left parsing two cross-currents: growth data that still looks firm, and forward-looking risks (tariffs + labor softening) that lean the other way. And the tariff driven policy has not come to an end with additional and highly targeted initiatives reported almost every week.

 

• The ECB continues with its “wait and watch” mode. Growth is slowing — staff projections show ~1.2% for 2025, easing further in 2026 — and the bloc remains vulnerable to U.S. tariff spillovers. But with inflation still above target, policymakers aren’t rushing to cut. The net effect: Europe is drifting in low-growth mode, with little policy urgency. Add to this picture a continuing developing story with clashes (even if only drone related) with Russia across many incidents adds to a sense of caution.

 

• Beijing has rolled out fiscal and monetary support to counter slowing growth. Industrial profits rebounded in August, but capacity utilization is slipping, and producer / export prices are weak. GDP is still tracking ~4.8% for 2025. Said stimulus is offsetting some pain, but the deeper issues (consumption drag, trade tensions) remain. China equity markets have broken the trend of the last couple of years and are delivering very healthy gains so far this year.

 

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THE EQUITY RALLY KEEPS GOING

The Federal Reserve going back to easing Monetary Policy is helping keep the bid for long duration assets.
Global markets outside the US too are putting on a strong showing especially when adjusting for currency appreciation

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Key Markets

 

 

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SGMC Forward Views …

 

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