A summary of key events and market trends during the month of April

Global Markets Updates

• Big Tech earnings reinforce the AI capex cycle
  April’s hyperscaler earnings broadly supported the view that AI demand is translating into real cloud growth, not just narrative momentum. Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta all remained committed to very large AI infrastructure programs, with combined 2026 capex estimates around $600–650 billion. The key investment message is that AI is now a full-scale industrial buildout: data centers, accelerators, networking, memory, power, and cooling. The near-term tension remains free cash flow pressure, but the revenue signal from cloud and AI workloads is strong enough that management teams are still leaning in rather than slowing down.
• Software stocks weaken as AI disruption fears intensify
  April also showed a sharper divide between AI infrastructure winners and traditional software names. Software stocks sold off after IBM and ServiceNow results reignited concerns that AI could compress software pricing, reduce seat-based demand, or change how enterprise workflows are automated. IBM’s software growth slowed, including pressure around Red Hat, while broader software multiples were hit by the fear that some applications may become features inside larger AI platforms rather than durable standalone products. This does not mean software is broadly impaired, but it does suggest investors are becoming more selective: mission-critical platforms should hold up better than workflow tools with weak differentiation.
• Nvidia extends AI leadership into quantum computing
  Nvidia’s April launch of Ising, a family of open AI models for quantum computing development, was strategically important. The models are designed to help with quantum processor calibration and error-correction decoding, two major bottlenecks in the path toward more useful quantum systems. This is not a near-term quantum revenue story; it is more about Nvidia positioning itself as the compute and software layer across emerging scientific computing domains. The broader point is that Nvidia is not only selling GPUs into today’s AI cycle, but also trying to become the default infrastructure partner for future compute paradigms.
• Kevin Warsh clears key hurdle toward Fed chair confirmation
  Kevin Warsh moved closer to becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair after the Senate Banking Committee advanced his nomination on April 29. Full Senate confirmation was still pending, but the committee vote was an important procedural step. For markets, the significance is twofold. First, Warsh is viewed as more open to reforming Fed communications and balance-sheet policy than Chair Powell. Second, his nomination comes amid heightened debate about central-bank independence, especially given President Trump’s public preference for lower rates. Clients should expect markets to focus closely on any shift in Fed reaction function, inflation tolerance, and rate-cut timing.

Stalemate in the Middle East

After a severe kinetic campaign over Iran the recent ‘peace talks’ and ceasefire have seen military activity take a back seat
Seemingly diametrically opposed negotiating positions will not be closed rapidly
The price of oil continues to trade high and availability continues to be a concern

Key Markets

SGMC Forward Views …

• No changes to our forward views this month